The Indian stock market extended its gains on Friday, with the Sensex rising about 262 points to close at 77,764 and the Nifty 50 climbing more than 95 points to end above 24,270. The rally added roughly ₹44,155 crore to the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies, pushing it to ₹480 lakh crore. Analysts attributed the move to easing tensions in the Middle East and lower expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Nifty broke out of a narrow range — but the follow-through was missing
Nifty had been stuck in a roughly 500-point range for 13 trading sessions. On Friday it finally broke out.
Profit booking at higher levels capped the upside.
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The index closed the week up 0.89%. The weekly candlestick showed a bullish candle with shadows on both sides, the third consecutive week of that pattern. The indecisiveness reflects the tug-of-war between bulls and bears, according to Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
The broader market tells a different story.
The smallcap index is much closer to its record high than Nifty
The Nifty Smallcap 100 has consistently outperformed the benchmark over recent weeks. It sits just a stone’s throw from its all-time high, while Nifty is still about 8% below its peak. The relative strength chart of the smallcap index against Nifty hit an 81-week high, signaling sustained leadership from broader-market stocks. He said the bullish momentum in smallcaps is likely to continue over the next few sessions, and Nifty may eventually follow.
Key resistance and support levels for the coming week
The 200-day EMA zone of 24,400–24,450 is expected to be a key resistance. A decisive move above 24,450 could trigger a rally toward 24,700 and then 24,900. On the downside, the 100-day EMA zone of 24,150–24,100 is immediate support. A breach below 24,100 could expose the index to the 20- and 50-day EMA confluence near 23,920–23,880. He noted the next few sessions will decide whether the breakout turns into a sustained rally or another false start.
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Sensex outlook for July — range-bound June gives way
Sensex oscillated within a 4,500-point band in June.
F&O data points to short covering, not fresh bearish bets
After the June expiry, F&O positioning showed a constructive undertone for Nifty.
Nifty IT remains weak; Bank Nifty is in a waiting pattern
The Nifty IT index continues to trade below key moving averages on daily and weekly timeframes. Its MACD is below both the zero line and the signal line, and the rising ADX suggests bearish trend strength. The 26,200–26,100 zone is a long-term support. A meaningful reversal is unlikely unless the index reclaims 28,300–28,400.
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Bank Nifty traded its narrowest weekly range since late December — just 939 points. It formed a small-bodied indecisive candle for the third week in a row. The index remains above its moving averages, which are sloping upward, but the daily RSI has been stuck in the 60–63 range for four sessions, meaning no fresh momentum. Resistance is at 58,600–58,700; support is near 57,100–57,000.
Nine stock picks for the next week
According to Shah, the following stocks look good on the charts for the coming week: Aurobindo Pharma, Lodha, LT Foods, Zydus Life, AB Capital, DLF, Oberoi Realty, Titan, and Divis Lab.
(The stock picks and views are those of the analyst and do not represent the views of the publication that originally reported the interview.)
