Nigeria experienced the most significant diesel price jump between February and August 2026, with costs soaring by 82.7% as global energy supply disruptions exacerbated fuel cost pressures in developing regions, as reported by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
The nation also secured fourth place for petrol price hikes, registering a 48.1% rise over the same period, highlighting how international energy market turbulence continues to drive local fuel prices upward.
Fuel Price Surge Propels Nigeria to Global Leadership
These findings are detailed in UNCTAD’s Trade and Development Report 2026: The Geoeconomics of Development, which analyzed fuel price data spanning February 23 to August 31, 2026.
Nigeria’s diesel surge surpassed increases in Lebanon (73.6%), Peru (66.7%), and Guatemala (66.3%). For petrol, Myanmar led with a 50.7% jump, followed by the United Arab Emirates (49.8%) and Malaysia (48.4%).
UNCTAD linked the energy crisis to infrastructure damage and blockages in the Strait of Hormuz, which caused the largest monthly decline in global energy supply on record. Brent crude prices climbed from approximately $70 per barrel to over $110 after the Middle East conflict began. The report forecasts oil prices to stay above pre-conflict levels by more than $30 per barrel through 2026, despite strategic reserve releases and increased production elsewhere.
Global Energy Crisis Impacts Vary Widely Across Regions
“The shock is global, but the effects are uneven,” UNCTAD stated, noting that higher energy costs diminish consumer purchasing power and limit spending. The most severe domestic fuel price spikes occurred primarily in developing Asian and African nations.
The surge coincides with Nigeria’s push to maximize value from crude oil through expanded refining. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery delivered about 50 million litres of petrol daily to the domestic market in the first half of 2026, per Nairametrics.
According to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), average daily petrol imports dropped 26% to 14.6 million litres in August from 19.7 million litres in July. National Bureau of Statistics data revealed the petrol import bill shrank 96.15% to N87.40 billion in Q1 2026 versus N2.27 trillion in the same period a year earlier.
Complex Outlook for Nigeria’s Energy Sector
UNCTAD identifies Nigeria, along with Angola, Guyana, and Kazakhstan, as oil and gas exporters poised to gain from raised global energy prices driven by the Middle East conflict. Enhanced crude prices could boost export revenues and government coffers, contingent on production levels and domestic supply costs.
For Nigerians, the fuel price surge escalates transportation expenses, rippling through the economy and raising costs for goods and services. Small business operators, who depend on diesel generators due to unreliable electricity, face rising operational expenses, potentially forcing price hikes or production cuts.
Regulatory and Supply Chain Influences on Domestic Markets
Regulatory and supply-chain decisions still shape petrol imports. In September, Abuja’s Federal High Court mandated the NMDPRA to continue issuing import licenses to Matrix Energy, AA Rano, and AYM Shafa under legal frameworks.
On October 9, the federal government announced NNPC Retail would absorb the 30-day petrol discount via reduced margins rather than funding it from the budget or Federation Account. Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele stated the retailer would procure fuel from Dangote Refinery and other suppliers at market rates while accepting lower profit margins to cover the discount.
Shift Toward Renewable Energy as Mitigation Strategy
Global electric vehicle trade rose 11% in Q1 2026, according to the report. UNCTAD cites China, Nepal, Singapore, and Vietnam as examples where EV uptake reduced exposure to fuel shortages, noting at least 25 countries have imposed fuel rationing or restrictions due to supply constraints.
The report also shows renewable energy’s role in mitigating fossil fuel price volatility. Ember data shows natural gas sets electricity prices roughly 15% of the time in Spain, compared with 89% in Italy.
